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We've experienced a positive trend oil Brent oil parity on the global forex market at 2016. The starting point was 33.55 USD for the Brent oil market at the beginning of the year. With the conflict conditions in some bigger oil producers like Iraq and Syria, the oil prices have been following a decreasing period since 2013. After the first months of 2016, the horizontal trend that is observed with over 45.00 USD level on the market. At the last days of the year, the parity is continuing its increasing trend with over 51.00 USD level.

When we look at the general framework, we think that even though oil producers agree to cut production, US crude oil prices will not see above 60 USD / barrel due to the rise in the dollar index and will not remain at these levels even if they exceed 55 USD/barrel. In this context, if crude oil prices continue to rise, then 53.80 USD/barrel level should follow the first resistance at 51.90 USD/barrel level. When we look at Brent oil technically, the ongoing trend since November 2014 is passing the 56. USD level and we see that Brent oil is moving closer to this trend. If the downward trend in the positive direction, which is the resistance of the 55.20 USD level, is broken, the trend towards the 59 or 60 USD levels may be the continuation of the trend. Oil prices continue to rise after OPEC members have agreed to cut oil supplies. Finally, we can say the first 2017 forecasts are a bit positive, but as a general perspective ; many experts are telling the prices will stay under the 60 USD level with beginning to new year.

 

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