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We could observe a negative trend on wheat market during the 2016 year on the global forex market. The beginning point was at 478.78 level on wheat futures market at the first day of 2016. With starting of the second part of the year, the parity have started to experience a decreasing period. So, the parity reached to 384.12 level at 21st August which was the lowest level of the year. After that, we could observe some recovery signals and the parity is experiencing the over 400.00 level at the last days of the year.

In the monthly USDA supply - demand report released on October 12, While yield per cropland for the 2016/17 season remains unchanged from previous estimates, aggregate supply is 17 million kiles below previous estimates, while the corresponding reduction is 45 million kiles. The balance between supply and demand is 1,100 per month, while stocks at end-of-month are 1,138 million with an increase of 38 million km. In the USDA report, the Ministry's latest estimates on the supply / demand side indicate an increase on the supply side, albeit slightly. While the report encouraged buyers in the Egyptian market, soybean meal was the product with the highest increase on the supply side and end-of-period stocks. After the report, the soya leadership experienced a rapid recovery in the days following the declining prices.

For the first 2017 expectations side for traders, there could be a positive trend observed for the first days of new year. On the one hand, in the markets, the amount of net position at an extremely high level in one direction indicates the approximate time of the start of the opposite direction. If the move triggered by fund purchases over the past week means that the long positions of traders are peaking, the bullish momentum may gain momentum. In this type of movement, those outside the market may want to follow the trend and join the trend. However, market dynamics are probably not willing to give them the opportunity to buy. In short, short-term retreats in the wheat market may be a buying opportunity for medium-term thinkers.

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