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According to the experts, the USD/TRY parity experienced a positive trend in the first half of March. The main reason for the positive trend was the political and economical developments in the Turkish market. With the beginning of second half of March, the parity tested under the 3.61 level. According to the US data, the weekly unemployment rate improved with the realization of 241 thousand applicants and showed that the employment sector continued to improve. Ongoing unemployment claims fell to 2,03 million people. When we look at the housing sector, we are positive that new housing starts will increase by 3.0 % in February. But; the decline in construction permits in the period in question indicates that the industry may lose momentum in the coming months.

After the Fed decision on March 15th, the emerging market currencies are drawing attention, while the Central Bank of Turkey also noted a sharp drop in USD/TRY after the interest rate decision to increase in the late liquidity window. USD/TRY continues to maintain the importance of persistence above the 3.7000 level in order to see upward movement nowadays. If the USD/TRY is seen as rising, a resistance level of 3,7200 may be targeted. Permanently downgraded to 3,7000 levels may lead to weak trends, with 3.64 and 3.66 support levels. Finally, we can say the forecast of USD/TRY parity for April 2017 will be a bit horizontal for the first days of the month.

Support levels : 3,64 – 3,66
Resistance levels : 3,72 – 3,76

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