We can say USD/TRY parity is one of the most fluctuating parity in the global forex market during the month of April. There were a lot of strong price movements in both sides like positive and negative. The 3.62 level was the starting point at the beginning of April, then the parity followed a strong purchasing trend and reached to 3.73 level on April 7. After the US’s military intervention in Syria, the parity started to lose momentum because of stronger USD. However, after the referendum in Turkey on April 16, the parity showed a strong recovery and tested over the 3.74 level. When we look at the second half of the month, the parity has started to lose momentum again. On the other side, The Supreme Committee of Elections 's rejection of objections to the referendum election gave the TL assets a single value. Since the political day is calm, we saw a USDTRY exchange rate on sale during the day.
In general, moderate winds for emerging economies make it possible for exchange rates to remain calm despite these developments. The Central Bank’s interest rate meeting will be held at the last days of April. There is no expectation that an important step can be taken in this market. Central Bank’s policy rate is not expected to change anyway. Political developments after the referendum continue to be on the market's radar. On the US side, weekly unemployment claims were announced with the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. While the index is being announced under the expectation of 22.00; The weekly unemployment rate increased by 10 thousand to 244 per week in the week ending April 15. The expectation is 240 thousand. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said that this year's increase in interest rates is possible but that the Fed has the flexibility to wait to see how the economy is evolving.
The support levels will be 3.60 and 3.61, on the other hand, the resistance levels will be 3.66 and 3.68 for the first days of May.
- Date: 30 April 2017 Sun 11:01
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