In recent days, the speculation about can be frozen for oil production, along with sharp movements in oil prices we are witnessing. The pressure on the last days, it caused a serious decrease under 45 USD level, but at the last days of September, the parity recovered its decrease and reached above of the 47 USD level. The reason behind the rise is Buterfe, Algerian Minister of Energy on September 26-28 which will be held in the country informal OPEC meeting that the oil market could turn into a formal meeting where decisions can be taken about it was a statement.
If you remember, there was no agreement about stopping oil production in April. The level of oil production in the month of January together with the withdrawal of Buterfe, again, thinks he's going on the price per barrel of oil for 50 USD. Recently, in 26-28 September, ahead of informal OPEC meeting in Algeria, which will take place between the dates of production for the speculation in oil production can be frozen from time to time, we are witness to the strong increasement. The Russian Minister of Energy has also considered that they want to talk about the stopping conditions of oil production.
This week, the result of an informal OPEC meeting, there are strong price movements on the oil market. At the same time, a reduction on the production side and the national oil inventories released this week also had a positive impact on oil prices. However, the biggest undoubtedly is the result it is seen that the OPEC move. Spoken since the beginning of 2016, it will be monitored to reach agreement on oil production with the knowledge of stopping with a certain level of oil prices in the upward direction in the movement. However, the OPEC meeting there is an official decision from the authorities therefore it was not an official meeting. When looking at the incoming information, nearly 33,5 million barrels million barrels of daily production have reached an agreement to secure a level of 32,5 million barrels. Decision in Iran, Libya and Nigeria because of their special status, they'll be exempted, but it is not clear which country they come from barrels that will have a downtime. The official decision to be taken at OPEC meeting to be held on 30 November. Looking at the ceiling more production prior agreements or imposed by Saudi Arabia have been violated many times we see that. Therefore, the decision in oil prices in the long term may not be effective.
As a technical analysis , the crude oil prices tried to stay above 50 USD level, but we can observe it have not manage it still. 49.50 - 49.10 - 48.90 levels may be followed as a support level. It will be important for the level of pricing from 50 USD upward.
How about the effect of OPEC decision on Crude Oil Market?
For the bull market of oil market, it welcomed as positive that the OPEC is holding daily oil production over 32 million barrels. In this way, the overcoming of the resistance 46.50, resistance began to rise strongly and we see that the pair has reached 47.45. There may also be a downward pressure until 46.45 support level. If this support level can be broken, the relaxation will continue to occur up to the level of risk like 45.75 USD. After testing levels above 48.00, we are watching the retreat in different commodities. In this way, we see that support level has reached 47.50 USD. Although we may describe as the relaxations to this level of support 46.50 USD as profit pricing under decline and we think that it would be important for gaining momentum. In the case , if the prices can provide 47.50 USD as support and re-level are directed toward 48.00 USD. Especially, if this point passes, 48.50 – 48.75 level will be considered strongly on the crude oil market.
Finally, we can say the OPEC decision commented as a surprise on the global forex market by many experts. If you want make buying – selling transactions on brent or crude oil market, you should consider the latest developments on the market. The general tendency of oil market during the October 2016 will be on the positive side.
- Date: 10 October 2016 Mon 00:46
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