After American presidential elections, which resulted in the victory of Donald Trump, together with predictions and suggestions for the future, we can say that they began to take place on the internet. Depending on time, of course, the economic parameters may change, but for now, we can say that developments that are likely to happen in the future is clearly seen. Models within the forex investment, especially foreign currency that is kept at the forefront of changes in one element that makes a difference as pointed out is the fact that the other option to be able to say that we have the opportunity. Often in our country when we look for investment ideas by exploring our site and within us, in this sense, we will take steps to provide new options.
In terms of political and economic concern all over the world attention as a selection in this process, and no longer a process that gradually leads to the conclusion that it comes to Trump, we can say that the next phase has begun in a very serious way. After electing Donald Trump as the US President, the dollar gained serious value against emerging countries’ currencies on the market. After winning Donald Trump's presidential elections in the United States, continues volatility in the markets. 10-year treasury bond rates of the USA, rose to a level of 2.3% which is the highest level of last ten months. US dollars, Trump's election victory after the impact of the rise in US bond yields and higher inflation expectations, came to its highest level in 11 months against major currencies. The Euro declined to the lowest level 1.0728 since the month of January against the USD, while the dollar index increased by 1% and exceeded the level of 100, which is the highest since the month of December. On the basis of these movements will bring more restrictions on trade and increase the expenditures of the administration, Trump, and low inflation seen in the last 10 years of these steps in the developed countries the expectation that it will end the process was effective. In the case of selecting Trump, Canada have announced that they will cancel the free trade agreements with USA and Mexico. Trump's trade policies with China and imports from Mexico that wants to watch it seems that that will put pressure on American manufacturers. Trump wants to apply higher customs duty on Chinese goods. After electing Trump the U.S. experienced the sharp declines in futures. The losses reached 5% in U.S. futures S&P 500, Nsdq100 and Dow30 indices.
The Trump effects of Emerging Countries
Mexico's currency depreciation, while maintaining a lived in the vicinity of 10% against the USD in the first place, a direct impact currencies such as the TL focused how they will be affected from U.S. Federal Reserve's unexpected decisions. According to the many experts, the delaying possibility of interest increase by Fed may be a positive development for developing countries like Turkey. Trump said that he would change the currend Fed President Janet Yellen in near future. With Trump's victory, the possiblity of increase interest in December fell harshly.
Some Recovery signals with the starting second half of November
After starting the second half of November, we can say there are some recovery signals observed in many currency pairs and commodities which are traded on the global forex market. The effects of Donald Trump's election to the U.S. presidency in the financial markets, the indicator changed the direction of U.S. Treasury bonds and emerging market stocks. On the other hand, crude and brent oil market started to rise with some other commodities. The U.S. 10-year bonds fell from the highest level in the last years the interest on maturity, while Italian bonds led gains in European stocks. Emerging market stocks rose after the largest decline since August while U.S. stocks surged. Oil market gained value with the developing meeting of OPEC on the oil production limitations agreements. We can say, Trump effects started to subside with the starting the second half of November. While announcing election campaign before 8th November, he has pledged to restrict imports, reduce taxes and increase infrastructure expenses to 500 billion USD. Trump's election victory promised by the grant and boost inflation faster in a speculation that will lead the world's largest economy to tighten monetary policy, caused with record sales in global bonds last week.
In a general perspective , Global markets are pricing in the United States continues to Trump the possible implications of the presidential election. A wave of assets sales in the markets of developing countries and global bond investors with the promised financial incentive, according to Donald Trump's position as the wave deepens, the dollar value of base metals, European stocks gained value. With the uncertainty of Trump, the US 10-year bond interest rates and the US dollar index recorded stronger increases. Only the currencies of developing countries against the developed countries creates pressure on the currencies, the USD has risen against the Euro. Yellen’s presentation and important macroeconomic data such as retail sales and industrial production of the USA will be followed at the last days of November.
Finally, the protective policies of new president Trump will be effective on global markets during next months. Trump's election victory, the commitment of the Fed to increase spending on infrastructure to boost growth and inflation and faster rate hikes would lead to the speculation that, along with sent shock waves through global markets. The total value of global bonds reduced about 1.2 billion USD last weeks, the value of stocks has increased by 1 trillion USD, and achieved the fastest growth in industrial metals in the last four years. Emerging market assets, Trump's concern that it would implement more protectionist trade policies, together with as a result of the increase of capital outflow fell hard.
We have experienced a fluctuated period in gold market during the November. The opening price level was at 1277 USD at the beginning of the month. So, the positive atmosphere had continued in the first ten days of the month. In 9th November, the parity tested 1321 USD level which was the highest level of last two years. But, although there are some positive expectations, the positive atmosphere have not lasted longer. In 18th November, the price level decreased to 1207 USD level which was the most serious loss in last times. So, we can easily say, the gold prices reached the lowest level of six months.
We followed the day-to-day purchases, following the test of 1204 support, which was influential on the gold to highlight Fed Chairman Yellen's proximity to the interest raising period. In the last 6 months, we see that gold is aiming to hold on 1210 level where purchases come from the lowest price. As long as we remain below 1230 support, we expect the downward momentum to continue, increasing the probability of upside pricing under the fact that the interest rate increase has been completed to a significant extent at the market. In the downward direction, the 1.204 level will be in the forefront, and if this level breaks, the sales may deepen.
Expectation about December : The general expectation of gold market will be horizontal trend during the December. But, the interest increase decision may be affective on gold prices. We may observe a bit rise in prices, and the market can try 1225 USD resistance level again , and the support level will be 1188 USD for the first week of December.
Like gold market, we can observe a fluctuated period on silver market during the November. The opening price of silver market in the beginning of the month was at 17.94 USD level. The increasing period had continued until the first ten days of the month. In 11th November, the parity tested 18.63 USD level. But, with starting of the second week of the month. The decreasing trend reached 16.55 USD level in 18th November.
Trump effect continues in global markets. In particular, tax cuts - stronger inflationary pricing, and stronger economic growth in the markets, after explaining that they will resort to expanding fiscal policies, such as focusing on infrastructure investments. We are also seeing the US dollar being valued globally, while the bullish movements of US bond yields are accelerating. Naturally, commodities like gold and silver are hitting in this case. If we are going to make a technical evaluation on silver basis;
We see that after a sharp decline starting at the 19.00 level, it reaches the support of 17.00 and there are efforts to hold it right above this level. Therefore, we think that if this level of support is broken, the movement in the downward direction can continue and that it can settle in the target position of 16.80 to 16.40 support.
Expectation about December : The general expectation of silver market will be a bit negative during the November. But, the interest increase decision by Fed may be affective on silver prices. The parity may try 17.00 USD level in the second part of December again, but general perspective will be on the negative side during the month.
Brent oil Market
Certainly, we’ve observed a negative trend on brent oil market. The OPEC meeting news and other conflicts in many issues are affecting the prices of brent oil market. The 48.95 USD level was the opening level of November on brent oil makret. Especially when we reach in the middle of the month, the market experienced a serious value loss, and the price level decreased to 44.28 USD level. But, with the beginning of the second half of November, we started to observe some positive recovery signals of brent oil market.
Although global growth worries us as a weakening of oil demand, oil consumption is heavily used in the industrial and transportation field when we consider countries such as the US and China, which are leading the world's growth and are effective in demanding oil. Despite the efforts of all the Central Banks in recent years, the desired growth figures can not be obtained from these areas that support the growth of the countries. Despite the continuing expansionary monetary policies that are progressing in Europe, the desired improvement is not seen. While preparing for an interest rate increase on the US front, the interest rate increase is being made in order to prevent significant damage to the global economy, especially in developing countries. In Asia, while Japan is struggling stagnant, risks are pronounced in the Chinese economy. Therefore, the monetary policy that could affect the growth rates of the Central Banks' countries will also affect the oil consumption and, in parallel, the oil prices. In summary, monetary policies that support consumption growth in parallel with growth will lead to an increase in oil prices.
Expectation about December : The parity may try 47.25 and 47.75 level as a resistance level during the first days of October. Also, the support level will be determined as 45.50 on the global brent oil market.
Crude oil Market
The 47.10 USD level was the beginning point of crude oil market in 1st November. Although, there are a lot of positive expectations on crude oil market, the parity started to decrease with the beginning of November. We can also observe some recovery signals with the beginning of second part of November.
OPEC's official meeting to be held in Vienna on November 30th, oil prices are exploiting the explanations from producer countries after they announced that diplomatic negotiations will start. Lastly, the minister of energy from Russia, which is a very controversial country for production, has to explain. Novak said the negotiations were quite positive and that he had a clear eye for a deal on November 30th. If the agreement is made, the deducted amount will be important as well.
Expectation about December : The parity may try 47.25 level as a resistance level and the support level will be 45.50 in the first week of December.
Natural Gas Market
The negative trend is continuing during the November on natural gas market. The 2,99 level was the beginning point and the parity decreased to 2,84 level in the middle of the month. We can say, the negative – horizontal process will continue in a specific time period.
Expectation about December : 3,00 level will be the solution point for the natural gas market with the beginning days of December. If the parity exceeds 3,00 level, 3,25 level can be the resistance point and we could observe a positive trend on natural gas.
Chinese investors are paying attention to copper prices and volumes shrinking in the Shanghai stock market, with a decline from the two-year highs. Decrease in copper demand, decrease in capacity will slow down the growth of demand in the country, while economic conditions in China must be observed in the future for domestic use in cable and pipe production.
Jiangxi Co., one of China's major copper producers, believes that the interruption of mining-related transaction fees may be effective in expanding the declining capacity of China. Pan Pacific Copper Co. is voicing concerns over China's reduced imports of refined metals, although local metal purchases have been on the rise. According to Pan Pacific estimates, China's copper deficit will drop to 1.8 million metric tons in October, but will fall to 1.8 million tons in 2020 if we assume that the import deficit weakens in October.
Expectation about December: The support level will be 2,4860 and the resistance level will be 2,4150 during the first days of December.
EUR / USD Parity
Although there are some positive expectations, the EUR/USD parity experienced a negative trend during the November. The starting point of parity was 1.0967 level at the beginning of the month. The parity reached to 1.1231 level with the concerns about Trump’s being American President in 9th November. But, the real effect was observed as negative and the parity started to lose value strongly after this date. In 22th November, the parity reached to 1.0644 level.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's explanation told us the parity trying to find its way in the evening hours; we’ve watched calmly in the Asian day on the new day. Constructive talks related to the inflation target, which is one of the most important indicators for the euro area, can be said to have slowed down the losses of the euro against the US dollar. The US data, which will be released in the evening, and the parity that we expect to be partially activated, seem to be waiting for the Fed meeting in December and the related developments in the meeting.
Expectation about December: The fluctuated trend will continue, but we can say the 1,0520 is support and 1,0720 is the resistance level on EUR/USD parity.
USD / JPY Parity
The USD/JPY parity which is one of the most important currency pairs on the global forex market, have experienced a positive trend during the November. The starting level of parity 104.84 at the beginning of November. So, we can observe the parity started to increase after the results of American Presidential election. The parity reached over 110.00 level with the second half of November.
The effect of the earthquake that occurred in the 22th November of Japan's Fukushima city openings caused a partial downward movement in the parity. The USD/JPY, which is trying to recover in a short period of time, will be releasing key data on Wednesday at the US summit, and the absence of data flow from Japan has partially dented the parity with the weaker USD index.
Technically, we can see the effect of interest rate hikes on the dollar starting at 110.60. We can say that BoJ has been working for a long time and that it is easier to come to the USD/JPY levels than expected, with interest rates expected at the possible December meeting.
Expectation about December: The general expert view is that there may be positive - horizontal trend, and 110.60 level will be the support level of USD/JPY parity.
GBP / USD Parity
We can observe a positive trend at GBP/USD parity during November. The positive effects of American Presidential Election is pricing some currency pairs where the American Dollar is stronger. The 1.2230 was the starting point of GBP/USD parity at the beginning of November. The parity is following on the 1.2400 level with starting the second half of November.
After the US elections, the pound, the only currency that the dollar has had the least impact and perhaps weakened partly, is still maintaining its solid position. However, with the BoE's additional measures, it is likely that the weakening of the currency will be avoided as well. The piece, which tried to compensate for Brexit losses, was important both as support and resistance yesterday at 1.2470 level. Holding on this level may have GBPUSD upwards of 1.27 with upward momentum.
Expectation about December: According to the many experts, the general trend of GBP/USD parity will be a bit positive side. The support level will be 1.2470 and the resistance level will be 1.2530 in the first days of December.
- Date: 26 November 2016 Sat 12:34
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