We can say, we have experienced a positive September for the economy on the market. There were lots of serious developments about different issues from different countries. Especially, FED’s interest increase expectations and OPEC meeting for limitation concept of oil production in many oil producers on the market were the major topics of September. The death of Thailand King also affected Asian markets seriously at the last times. With many expectations about the near future for many developments, we welcome the November. There were serious price movements in many commodities and currency pairs.
At the last week of September, S&P and Fitch have announced some credit rating and economic outlook decisions about many important economies in Europe like Italy and France. While S&P is increasing the outlook of France from “stable” to “positive”, Fitch decreased the outlook of Italy from “stable” to “negative” level. There were also new credit ratings announced by the international credit rating agencies about Morocco and Cyprus.
During the September, we can say the market has priced the positive atmosphere of interest increase expectations by FED. Many officials from FED and other foundations in the USA economy stated that they are looking positive about interest increase by FED in this year and in next years. According to the many experts from different sources, the interest increase will be completed until the end of this year with more than 60% probability.
On the other hand, OPEC meeting will be held in November, so there would be taken lots of important decisions. As a major topic, the limitations of oil production will be discussed in this meeting, and there may be some important decisions about this issue during November.
We can easily say, the gold market have experienced a negative process during the October. The general conditions of world economy and the position of USD has been affecting gold market a lot. If you are making buying – selling transactions on gold market, October was not a profitable month for you. The gold parity opened with 1,318 USD level at the beginning of October. But, the positive trend of American Dollar and some major currencies affected gold as negative. So, the prices decreased to 1,251 USD level at the middle of the month. At the last week of October, there wore some strong recovery signals on the gold market, so the prices of gold market reached 1,265 USD level in 24th day of the month.
Some positive developments occur level of the process that we follow 1265 USD level during these days. The upward direction of this level of movement in the price of gold ounce will keep the possibility of acceleration. In this way we will continue to pursue 1250 and 1257 USD support levels in the short term. In addition, even in the days of resistance have occurred 1274 and 1265 USD prices above the level without exceeding the acceleration of the upward movement we see the likelihood of that is low. If the resistance levels exceed, we may observe the 1285 USD level on the gold market. During the last week of the month, gold prices tried upward levels, with Fed officials’ declerations about interest increase in this year and USD parity’s highest level at the last months.
Expectation about November : The general expectation of gold market will be positive trend during the November. We may observe a bit rise in prices, and the market can try 1285 USD resistance level again , and the support level will be 1250 USD for the first week of October.
According to the latest developments and technical indicators on silver market, the price of silver will be determined the 17.00 USD level as a relaxation level, so there are some recovery signals on the global silver market. But when we consider technically, we can’t tell that this recovery can continue. The most important reason of it, silver is trading below the level of 17.85 USD level. With the beginning of October, the silver market was affected so negatively from the developments on the market and interest increase expectations by FED. We can say easily, when the USD earns value, the silver market generally loses value on the spot market. Therefore, to overcome the resistance level of the commodities re-sense inside the canal into the future, which means, for the recovery in prices can continue. After this process, 18.00 USD level may be the main resistance level at the end of October. Downward pressure can lead to remain on the silver market in near future, if the prices does not exceed 17.85 USD resistance level.
Expectation about November : The general expectation of silver market will be a bit horizontal during the November. The parity may try 18.50 USD level in the second part of November again, but general perspective will be on the horizontal side during the month.
Brent oil Market
We can easily say, the brent oil market had experienced a bright October for the investors. After the informal discussions of OPEC in Algeria, we will follow World Energy Conference in Istanbul. Consensus within an alliance has been achieved in the last negotiations, and now Russia's wider plan including a production outage is on the agenda. Although many experts were waiting Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Russia will join and meet in the conference, Iraq and Iran have announced they will not attend the conference. In a statement from the Iranian oil Ministry, it’s unclear they will join or not to the conference. We can say this development didn’t provide a conflict atmosphere, because it’s predicted they took the decisions as a result of political movements.
We can say , October was a very positive period for the brent oil traders from different countries all over the world. Although some negative situations in Syria and Iraq region, the brent oil parity had recorded some strong increases during the September. The 50.16 level was the starting point , and the 51.60 level was the ending point of the month. So, we could observe a strong positive trend during the October.
Expectation about November : The parity may try 52.50 and 52.80 level as a resistance level during the first days of November. Also, the support level will be determined as 50.90 on the global brent oil market.
Crude oil Market
We could observe a positive trend on crude oil market like brent oil market on the global forex market in October. The OPEC members were able to take a joint decision had set a ceiling for oil production after eight years during the informal talks in Algeria. At the OPEC meeting in November, it’s expected daily production will be reduced about 600,000 barrels daily. But the cuts will be made from which country how much production, where production is not yet clear which countries will be provided concession on. For this reason, we can say there is a deal between members. If any country remained firm in this reconciliation, could turn into a deal at the meeting in the month of November. Also incorporated in this agreement with Russia and the global supply being an important process for the solution of the problem may start.
For the crude oil market, September was a profitable month for like brent oil market. The 48.04 level was the starting point , and the 50.20 level was the ending point of the month. So, we could observe a strong positive trend during the October.
Expectation about November : The parity may try 51.30 level as a resistance level and the support level will be 49.90 in the first week of November.
Natural Gas Market
October 2016 was a so fluctuated period for the natural gas market. The starting price was 2,90 level at the beginning of October, and the parity tried 3,40 level at the last week of the month. We could observe some strong increases and decreases on natural gas market because of some risky developments on the world economy and natural gas producers.
Expectation about November : As a general expert view, the parity will experience a negative process. There may be some profit sales. The new support level will be 3,25 and new resistance level will be 3,40 in the first days of November.
We have experienced a negative trend during the October on the copper market for the traders who are making buying – selling transactions on the forex market. The opening level was 2,210 at the beginning of October, after that the parity decreased under the 2,100 level.
Expectation about November: The support level will be 2,015 and the resistance level will be 2,110 during the first days of November.
October was a fluctuated month for the cotton market. The parity started with 68,04 level to the month and reached 69,00 at the end of the month. But, the general process was positive.
Expectation about November: The support level will be 67,85 and the resistance level will be 70,80 during the first days of November.
The market had the inflation figures from Europe at the second part of October. European inflation has achieved the expectations and reached a bullish momentum of 0,4%. The rest of the month after the decision of the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference that was held was quite important. The market has created a perception that loose monetary policy will be continued after the expectations about interest increase by FED. Central Bank President Draghi reminded that they may change asset purchase program as needed. We can observe USD didn’t slow down on the global markets after the expectations are getting stronger for December. In the next week, the first growth of third quarter of the USA will be followed. It is expected that the USA economy will have a great momentum of the growth performance. In order to reach its annual goals of the economy figures closer to the expectations of this quarter have to watch. The last trading day of the last week the pair decreased below 1.0900 level.
Expectation about November: The fluctuated trend will continue, but we can say the 1,0750 is support and 1,1000 is the resistance level on EUR/USD parity.
During the October, there was a serious fluctuating process on the USD/JPY parity. It was important that the performance of U.S. inflation expectations. On the other hand, the volatility of Japanese Yen increased with the developments from Japan. The BOJ President Kuroda said that it will take more than a few months to reach 2% inflation rate. At the same time last week, in the comments of Kuroda will take place after the normalization process has been reached the goal of 2 percent that had been reported in this direction and how to deal with low interest rates. The U.S. economy growth figures this week will be very important. Predicted growth of 2.7 percent in the new week, and the course of dollars to the U.S. economy prior to the November meeting will be important. Technically in the short term it will be important that 103.90 level on the parity.
Expectation about November: The general expert view is that there may be horizontal trend, and 103.45 level will be the support level of USD/JPY parity.
The brexit debate continued in the UK during the October, so we can say the parity is affecting by the developments seriously. UK Finance Minister Hammond will explain the new fiscal plan on 23 November. Hammond’s plans can changed because of the higher budget deficit in the forthcoming period in the UK. Hammond said the bugdet deficit will be solved slowly, so there will be focused on growth less than the previous years on the economy. Growth data is taking place on next week in the calendar. Also, the first growth rates of third quarter for the UK will be announced. It will be important because it will be the first data after Brexit referendum. On the USA side, the same data will be announced in near future.
For the technical approach, the parity started October with the 1,2978 level. With the starting of first week of October, we could observe the trend turned negative. In October 12, the parity decreased to 1,2127 which was the lowest level of the last three years. At the last days of the month, the parity is trading about 1,24 level on the global forex market.
Expectation about November: GBP/USD parity had continued its negative trend during the October. During the November, they may be a bit positive trend on the parity. If the 1,2300 level exceeds, the 1,2385 level will be the resistance level. On the other hand, 1,2145 will be the support level for the first days of November.
Last week, ECB have announced the decision about interest rates, and they didn’t provide the expectations that asset purchases will be reduced. The ECB's low interest policy fixed by continuing to allow the banks to keep markets liquid we see that the messages which continued to work with 0%. Draghi said the inflation has not reached the recovery trend on the market, so all eyes will be on the meeting which will be held on 8th December.
- Date: 01 November 2016 Tue 14:21
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