When we look at the general picture, we’ve experienced a fluctuating period during the month of April for the world economies. Of course, the Military intervention of the USA to the Syrian air base was the most important development of April. Other major topics were Fed’s announcements, the developments of the oil market and Turkish referendum during the month. On the other hand, the oil prices were one of the most important subjects of April, because most of the people followed the latest developments of OPEC side closely.
Military intervention to Syria
Syria policy was one of the most important issues of Trump’s foreign policy. Using nuclear weapons were intolerable for any country of the world under today’s world conditions. After the doubt of Syria’s using nuclear weapons, the USA organized a military intervention in Syria. The United States hit Syria in the early hours of Friday, April 7, with 59 cruise missiles fired by two destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean, the Shayrat Military Air Base in southern Humus. The United States responded to the nuclear weapons attack on the Han Sheikh community in the Idlib region under jihadist control under the auspices of the Syrian Air Force on April 4, which caused death of 112 people, including many children. It is understood that the US has informed both the coalition and the Russian government before the military intervention in question. US Secretary of State Tillerson has given legal grounds to military intervention in 2013, stating that Russia could not provide the implementation of the agreement that the Esat regime had to abolish its chemical weapons, or that he was in a coma with Damascus outright. The US military intervention was supported by different countries such as Germany, Turkey, France, Poland, Australia, Saudi Arabia and Israel. The EU also gave the message that it is open to cooperation with the US in Syria. In response, Russia announced that it had suspended bilateral agreements with US air forces to prevent the possibility of a Syrian air strike.
After this clear message to the world about using nuclear weapons, the American economy started to give important positive signals. After the date of April 7th, the Dollar index raised strongly. Also, we could observe the different data from the domestic market of the USA was so supportive after the intervention. On the other hand, the clear support of many countries of the world to this intervention was the other positive determinant of the atmosphere.
About Fed interest increase concept
The Federal Reserve has also discussed the uncertainty of Trump policies and the size of the Fed's balance sheet, apart from evaluating the economic outlook in the minutes of its meeting of March 14th which were published in the first week of April. The Fed's debate about the size of the bilateral brings with it two consequences. First, the next agenda will be reducing the interest rate in 2017, rather than how much interest will be raised in 2017, and how much this downsizing will take place. In the interest of the market not to overreact at first, the message that the Fed will give in the near future is that it should focus on the policy, not timing. How this can be done is not certain, but the general view is that this debate can continue throughout the year, as we have seen from the minutes, and can be put into practice. The second issue is how the markets will respond. Despite yesterday's interest rate discussion, volatility did not rise in US 2 and 10 year interest rates. This shows that the bond market has not yet become serious.
The developments of oil market
We could observe that the price of brent oil has fallen below the 30 USD level at the beginning of 2016. Later, both the recovery in global economies and the supply disruptions rose to 57-58 USD at the beginning of this year. However, in the last two months, despite the discontinuation of OPEC, which is the main producer of oil, we are seeing an oil price regressing back to 50 USD due to production increases especially in the USA and Russia.
Currently there is a total production of about 95 million barrels per day in the oil producers all around the world under today’s world conditions. The 32 million barrels of the production is belonging to the OPEC countries. Saudi Arabia has the largest production momentum with the 10 million barrels. When we look at the non - OPEC countries, we can see two great giants. US have 9 million barrels and Russia has 11 million barrels. Both the US and Russia have increased production by 500.000 barrels in the last six months despite the drop in oil prices. In the same period Saudi Arabia has reduced its production by 700 thousand barrels. It is not to predict that Saudi Arabia is one of the most affected countries of the world from the decision of OPEC’s oil production limitation.
With the second part of April, we could observe some positive developments in the oil market. The general secretary of OPEC pledges to keep the group's inventories in the last five - year average. While OPEC is pushing up the optimism market, the oversupply issue continues to be US-driven. This causes the upward movements to be weak. Crude oil, which moves away from the supply-demand balance, is ahead of OPEC's expectation that it will carry the supply interruption to the second half of the year.
In the referendum on the Constitutional amendment, the citizens made optimistic winds in the markets to make 'yes' choices. After the referendum result, the uncertainty that caused the possibility of early elections was raised, adding to the Turkish assets. With the value gain in the Turkish Lira, the first day's contribution to the Turkish economy rose above 45 billion Turkish liras as the rise in the stock market and the decline in interest.
After the referendum, the Prime Minister and the President pointed out 2019 as the date of the elections, at least in the short term, preventing uncertainty in this direction. On the contrary, the death arguments and the possibility of ties with the European Union in the context of this issue limited the optimistic atmosphere in the market. A clearer assessment of the roadmap after the referendum, including these issues, can be expected to be made following the first meeting of the Council of Ministers. We were trying to emphasize that after the referendum, the messages given by the politicians and the main trend in the international markets were influential rather than the referendum in determining the medium term trend in the domestic markets in the last weeks. The first market reaction after the referendum also justified us for now.
Analysts noted that the declining trend in the foreign exchange rates after the general election could continue and that domestic political prospects will have an effect on the direction of the markets.
Latest developments of Bitcoin market
The 1100 USD band was broken with the beginning of April and the price continued to rise gradually. Although this pause has paused, the price has gone up to 1,200 USD during the day and is currently around 1195 USD. Unnecessary debates over Bitcoin Unlimited have made investors nervous over the past few weeks. However, the fact that the discussions have been postponed for some time may have probably supported investors in purchasing direction. If there is no movement above the $ 1200 band, we can see movement between the 850-1200 USD levels as we have already mentioned.
When we look at the auxiliary indicators, the majority of them produce a strong signal in the direction of the receiver. However, we cannot mention a clear sign that the price will go upwards as long as the price is above 1,200 USD and the 1250 USD level at which the last drop starts is not broken.
The other positive development has come from the Indian market. The Indian government press service announced this week that it created a multi-disciplinary committee. The committee is staffed by the Reserve Bank of India, the Ministry of Finance, the Financial Services Department and the Department of Economic Affairs. There are also representatives from government-supported think-tank NITI Aayog and state bank of India, the largest bank in the country.
The Presidential Election in France
When we look at the final results of the presidential election in France which was held on April 23, Emmanuel Macron, leader of the Walking Movement, and Marine Le Pen, the leader of the ultra-nationalist National Front Party, remained in the second round. Macron and Le Pen, who won the first two rounds in the first round, will race in the second round to be held on May 7. The winner of the second round will take over from President François Hollande until May 14th.
The first effects of the election results showed so positive developments in Euro currencies. The Euro index started to gain value after the first results of French elections. The euro rose sharply against the dollar after Macron and Le Pen pointed out that the census preliminary counts on the first round of the presidential election in France would remain the second round to be made next month. After early counts, the gain against the dollar exceeded 2 % and saw its peak for five months.
At the last times, gold market started to gain its “safe port” specialty after the increasing conditions of political, economic and environmental risks in many countries all around the world. There were some important developments which have affected the global economies like US’s military intervention in Syria, Turkish referendum, Fed meeting and OPEC’s limitation about oil production. When we look at the big picture of April for the gold market, the gold price reached to 1294 USD level on March 18th which was the highest level of last six months. It shows that the global uncertainties and conflicts are increasing day by day.
When we look at the latest developments of the gold market, the market exposed to profit realizations meets the demand for support levels due to continued inquiry of Trump policies and recent weak US data. In addition, the fact that geopolitical risks stand in a corner is another factor that limits profit sales. The presidential election in France is another factor of uncertainty. Decreasing uncertainties from France after the election is complete may be negative for gold prices and there may be some withdrawal under pressure from sales. Short-term correction in gold prices can be seen after the recent sharp rise.
With the beginning of the second part of April, the gold market started to experience price movement as a bear market. In the Beige Book published by the Fed, demand for Dollars and stocks was seen as economic activity increased at a modest pace. On the Fed side, Fed Vice President Fischer has been evaluating central banking and the Fed's monetary policy. Fischer stated that continuing the bank's gradual monetary tightening could bring the country's economy up to the highest level and reduce unwanted external influences. Stating that the differences between the monetary policies of the central banks persist, Fischer noted that the transition to stricter monetary policy in the United States has become a global focal point. Referring to the fact that unemployment has fallen steadily in Europe, Brexit has not caused serious financial deterioration, and the Chinese economy has continued to grow, Fischer said that the effects of different monetary policies will be manageable.
According to the many economists from different countries all over the world, the silver market is testing the sales pressure with the third week of April. But, the general uncertainties and a lot of different conflicts like political and environmental are making the pricing concept on silver market as the upward side. When we look at the first day of April, the starting level was at 18.32 USD level at the beginning of the month. Indeed, the positive atmosphere has continued during the month, the silver prices reached to 18.62 USD level which was the highest point of the month. Finally, we can say that after losing effect of sales pressure, we would see the correction level for the silver market in the near future in the global forex market.
After a negative trend at the last weeks of March, the oil market started to show some recovery signals with the beginning of April. Despite the decline in oil inventories, announced data in the US is showing that oil production in the US has been at its highest since 2015 has been effective in lowering oil prices. Also, the explanations of OPEC Secretary General Barkindo were followed. Barkindo said OPEC countries will continue their production shortfall and will be discussed at a meeting in Vienna on 25 May.
Oil contracts rose 0.6 % in New York on Wednesday after 3.8 % , after showing the harshest decline since March 8. According to the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, oil production in the US has reached its highest level since August 2015 last week. This stabilizes the two-week fall in oil stocks that hit record levels. Gasoline inventories rose for the first time since February.
According to the US Department of Energy data, oil inventories declined by about 1 million barrels a week, ending April 14. Cushing oil stocks decreased by 778 thousand barrels. However, total production increased by 17 thousand barrels. Continuation of oil stocks continues to be a positive indicator in terms of oil prices, but the ongoing increase in total production since 17th of February has caused concern over oil prices. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said OPEC's decision on the extension of the deal will be given at an official meeting on May 25th at the level of ministers in Vienna. Explanations made in this process can create speculative movements on the price of oil.
If we talk about technical analysis side of crude oil market, for American type crude oil WTI, has gone down in critical support levels. The price of oil below the 52.20 USD level will limit the rise. The price of oil above 49 USD at this point is important in terms of protection of upward trend. On the other hand, when we look at the technical analysis of brent oil market, it seems to have supported the 52 USD level. Brent oil can test resistance levels of 53.70 - 54.25 USD. At this point, staying on the 52.50 USD support level can help Brent oil to reach the resistance levels of the oil.
Like the last months, the fluctuating process is continuing on the copper market. But, we can say the general outlook is negative. The starting point of copper prices was at the 2.72 level at the beginning of April. Until the end of first half of the month, the fluctuating trend continued and price level reached to 2.59 level at April 18. When we look at the first days of second part of the month, the parity affected by a strong sales pressure and decreased to 2.54 level at April 20.
After a terrible beginning to the month of April, the parity started to give some recovery signals with the beginning of the second part of the month. The parity tested under the 1.06 level at April 9, which was the lowest level of last four months. But, with the beginning of second part of April, the parity supported by strong purchases and reached to 1.0758 at April 20. The positive atmosphere is continuing in the last days of month.
At the beginning of the year's first meeting in 2017, the German Bankers' Union (ECB) criticized the European Central Bank for planning higher interest rates. However, the European Central Bank is not expected to make any changes in the monetary policy in 2017, as growth and inflationary differences between countries in Europe are in favor of Germany and political risks in Europe are on the agenda.
We see that the positive contribution to Euro zone inflation is due to the increase in transport fuels. When we look at the contents of the report, it is observed that many items are experiencing a decrease in monthly basis, the increase in inflation of processed food and non-energy industry goods is remarkable. If the countries are to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, the countries that have pulled down inflation are Romania, Ireland and the Netherlands in particular. The positive contribution of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia countries to the inflation rate of the Euro Area is remarkable. In March, compared with February, annual inflation fell in 17 member states, but we see that it rose in 5 member countries.
After the announcement of British Prime Minister Theresa May's cabinet meeting, the pound, which gained momentum with early elections on June 8th , returned some of its gains along with strengthening in the USD. The British parliament has accepted the early election decision on June 8th. Parliament was reported to have received 552 votes against this decision. On April 20, British Prime Minister May announced that early election was highly positive on the pound. The first effect of this news was that the price of the election was finalized as it was priced a while ago, so it did not cause a hard move on the GBP / USD.
If we look technical side briefly, in order to see the tendency to recover in the GBP/USD, we need to see persistent movements at 1.2860 level, while resistance levels of 1.2940 and 1.3060 can be targeted for the ups.
When we look at the big picture of the last month, we can see a decreasing trend on the parity of USD/JPY in the global forex market. The starting point was at 111.30 level at the beginning of April, when we look at the second part of the month, the parity tested under the 109.00 level. According to the announcement in the Asian side, exports in Japan recorded the fastest increase in the last two years, with an increase of 12% in March compared to the same month of the previous year. Imports, on the other hand, increased by 15.8 % in the period and the biggest rise in the last three years were realized. Another data we followed during the Asian session was the Tankan Manufacturer Confidence Index data. Confidence in the economy of large manufacturing companies in Japan increased in April, leading to a rise in the 9th month, which has not been seen since the 2008 crisis. However, positive Japanese data seems to have little impact on the USD/JPY parity. It has been observed that the parity has been quite horizontal since 108 – 110 levels. If we consider that the weak trend in the Dollar index continues, we can indicate that the USD/JPY parity can be expected to continue its trading course in the short run.
- Date: 30 April 2017 Sun 11:10
- Last Added
French Presidential elections are affecting the positive atmosphere on Euro
French Presidential elections are affecting the positive atmosphere on Euro...
Inflation rate is testing record levels in Turkey
Inflation rate is testing record levels in Turkey...
Non-farm payrolls data of the USA increased
Non-farm payrolls data of the USA increased...
Fed's politics interest decision gives direction to the global markets
Fed's politics interest decision gives direction to the global markets...
Oil market is trying to find a direction
Oil market is trying to find a direction at the last times....