It was a hard September for the global forex market, so there were a lot of important decisions, developments and conflict have experienced by the world. There were some important developments affected the global forex market like Moody’s credit ratings, conflict conditions in Syria and Iraq. There were serious price movements in many commodities and currency pairs. Especially, the developments on oil market like brent or crude oil, are affecting the market strongly.
The effect of Moody's started to begin with domestic market at the last days of September, overseas stock markets were affected negatively from coming up on the agenda of concern for Deutsche Bank. The OPEC meeting also on the agenda for some time has resulted in an informal way we can say that a positive for the market. When we look at the global economy, we can observe drawing the attention of increased volatility in the indexes. International stock markets, central banks have kept an upward trend due to supportive monetary policies. However, the European indices on the first days of the month fell under the influence of concern for Deutsche Bank. This genre can be seen in declines in the period ahead. However, the upward trend in the stock market in the medium and long term is guarded.
There are some positive expectations about rates of interest for December. In the speech Fed Chairman Janet Yellen can be said to exhibit a positive outlook. The economy at the end of the year, who is ready to interest rate hikes, Yellen, monetary support should be reduced gradually to prevent overheating in the economy, he said.
The American Dollar is reflected in the positive development of one of the survey on the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Candidate democratic party candidate Republican Party with Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton participated in the debate that is performed on a television channel. After the program, polls showed that Clinton was a bit positive. The results of the survey was observed with a slight increase in risk appetite.
Another significant development in the global economy is increasing oil prices like US Elections. Conducted informal OPEC meeting in Algeria this week in producing countries have reached an agreement on the limitation of oil production. According to the agreement, the country's daily oil production is 32.5 – 33.0 million barrels, will descend to the level of.
We can say, the gold market have experienced not a bad scenario. Although there were serious decreasements in gold prices, there were also some good returns. The market prices had decreased to 1,313 USD level in 18th day of September. It was the deep point and we can say the support level had broken there. But, at the end of the month, we received some strong recovery signals from the gold market. At the last day of September, the parity tries 1,329 USD level.
With the rise in commodity prices, the VIX index is constrained at the level of 1,316 USD together with the increase in gold prices in yesterday's session we have seen that dollars. Today, you can protect the validity of the same scenario. In other words, the decline of gold can be considered as a buying opportunity. Especially if oil prices rise these day, the rise of the shares it takes to trigger the dollar to rise may indirectly escalate that gold will not be an obstacle. For this reason, it may be useful to attempt in the fall.
Expectation about October : The general expectation of gold market will be horizontal a bit during the October. We may observe a bit rise in prices, and the market can try 1,3500 USD resistance level again , and the support level will be 1,2200 USD for the first week of October.
We can say September was a very fluctuated period for the global silver market. The parity had experienced a strong increase and horizontal trends. But, general direction of silver market on September was positive. The starting price of the month was 18.773 USD level, and the parity had increased to 20.152 level in 6th day of the month, and it was the highest point of the month. In the second half of September, the silver market experienced another strong increase and the prices reached to 20,102 level again. But, the closing price of September was 19,352. If we look at the general perspective of September, there will be about %3,5 incrasement on the silver market. So, it was a profitable investment as we said at the beginning of September on our analysis on the website.
Expectation about October : The general expectation of silver market will be a bit negative during the October. There may be a bit profit sales in October. The parity may try 20.000 USD level in the second part of October again, but general perspective will be on the negative side during the month.
Brent oil Market
After news that OPEC had decided to restrict the supply of oil is limited to the prerequisite there are two reasons why the rise of the brent oil. The ascension of the observed oil transport in the market together with the expectations of the return of rose oil is included in the prices already. The only thing that is not included in the prices of this restriction and the duration it takes from the time know the basics of how exactly this process will be valid. If the restriction causes an increase in the supply of oil production until the process begins, then the oil is unlikely to rise immediately. It may take some time. On the other hand, although not significant, the rise in front of dollars, at least the dollar does not fall. Considering these developments today, stocks that may occur in the U.S. with the rise of oil may cause it to remain relatively strong.
We can say , September was a very fluctuated period for the brent oil traders from different countries all over the world. Although some negative situations in Syria and Iraq region, the brent oil parity had recorded some strong increases during the September. The 45.74 level was the starting point , and the 49.60 level was the ending point of the month. So, we could observe a strong positive trend during the September.
Expectation about October : The general expectation of silver market will be horizontal-positive during the October. The parity may try 50.00 and 52.00 USD level in October again as a resistance level. The 48.15 will be the support level of brent oil market.
Crude oil Market
At the last days of September, an agreement regarding oil production cuts caused oil prices to rise rapidly in that have been made. On the other hand, the situation of the stock market gave a positive response to the fact that this indicates a continuation of the rise that could occur. On days that the return of the retention of oil remains high because it supports upward the risk premium increased in the autumn the situation, it may be useful for you to make the purchase.
For the crude oil market, September was a profitable month for like brent oil market. The 43.55 level was the starting point , and the 47.66 level was the ending point of the month. So, we could observe a strong positive trend during the September.
Expectation about October : The parity may try 48.50 level as a resistance level and the support level will be 45.90 in the first week of October.
Natural Gas Market
Although some expectations were negative and horizontal about the September 2016 , the parity have followed an increasing trend during the month. The starting point was 2,867 level and the closing point was 2,940 level. Especially, in the last days of month, the parity has incraesed strongly. 2,8900 was the main resistance level of last month, and natural gas market have broken that level, and increased more than 2,900 level.
Expectation about October : As a general expert view, the parity will experience a negative process. There may be some profit sales. The new support level will be 2,91 and new resistance level will be 2,95 in the first days of October.
September was a wonderful month for who are making buying and selling transactions on the global copper market. The parity started with 2,086 level to the month and reached 2,200 at the end of the month.
Expectation about October : The support level will be 2,180 and the resistance level will be 2,220 during the first days of October.
September was a positive and horizontal month for the cotton market. The parity started with 66,23 level to the month and reached 67,40 at the end of the month.
Expectation about October : The support level will be 65,50 and the resistance level will be 68,85 during the first days of October.
Growth data from the United States explained before the USD came back positive data from Europe the expectation described euro/dollar parity nowadays may sound negative retail sales data from Germany for the fall of the Euro limits. Therefore, I expect the rise of the pair to be limited. Therefore, the rise in the pair U.S. Dollar limited unless the data will not be negative. The starting point was 1,1153 level and the finishing level was 1,1223.
Economic indicators described in the last days of the month of September showed that inflation in Europe fell on a monthly basis. At the same time, at least in the United States that is maintained at the normal level of the jobs can be seen the reason for the strengthening of the dollar in international markets. There are two other causes should be considered. Also, the decline in stocks and commodity prices as of today, suggest that the decline in the dollar might be resistant. In these circumstances, there is a reason for the rise of parity. Recently, Federal Reserve officials take notice of the comments they make in the month of December that interest rates will continue to increase if the signal is received, then the Euro/Dollar, there may be a significant decline in. Hence the rise of wait for a few days and it may be beneficial to sell the pair.
Expectation about October : The fluctuated trend will continue, but we can say the 1,1175 is support and 1,1250 is the resistance level on EUR/USD parity.
Inflation information from Japan in the the last days of that came within expectations or negative expectations of the USD / JPY pair, while supporting the parity of dollars yet failed to rise, the upward movement of interest causes a rise limited. It's cause of the stock market declined despite rising commodity prices if the USD / JPY rise can be prevented. For this reason, a significant increase in today, the pair seems unlikely.
There lower interest rates of Dollar interest, the USD / JPY pair continues to hold a fairly low although described from Japan under the pressure of retail sales announcement at the end of the month, we are witnessing the depreciation of the yen. The VIX index and the U.S. dollar remain under pressure the rise in interest rates this to be able to being even more open in the fall of parity can be considered as a buying opportunity while getting clearly.
Expectation about October : The general expert view is that there may be horizontal trend, and 100,66 level will be the support level of USD/JPY parity.
Europe's interest is continuing to have a negative value and interest rates still remain at a marked retreat in the GBP/USD parity of the pound to remain under pressure and may continue to remain relatively strong. In this case, the Dollar is on the rise in the pound may not be very effective. The data announced about Sterling at the last days of September, money supply data is important in terms of the pound, although the market dynamics these days, looking at the bigger picture, the GBP/USD parity decide about the orientation. However, given the decline in stock markets for September, the pound will likely to remain under pressure. However, there are still EUR / GBP sterling parity declines are evaluated when possible in GBP/USD in decline we expect to be quite limited.
Expectation about October : September was a negative month for the GBP / USD parity, there may be a bit recovery during the October. The parity may try the 1,3100 level which will be the main resistance level of the month. Also, the support level will be 1,2890.
The interest rate of USD has not yet begun to rise and the Fed is getting closer to the stock market, the rise of interest will be as the refinery limits. How upward movements began to occur in commodities, although the rise in oil prices and the dollar will be limited these days, especially on the front of the stock to be sold, following the rise of that rise may occur this may cause.
The session marked the rise of the USD in the oil and stay together when under the pressure of the interest rates SP 500 Index we saw that with the rise of his attitude continued. However, approaching the election that could increase volatility in stock markets and the rise of shares may cause you to dream of the VIX index. Therefore, sales of the SP 500 Index can be evaluated as an opportunity for the rise.
18,850 support level that received from some hedge funds from Deutsche Bank and will be separated in the day assessing the level of risk was increasing with the news 19,200 able to be the cross resistance of the silver market. 19,200 level if it can hold on, the desire will be testing the resistance of 20,000. It will be the important resistance level and 20,300 may be the target. Important support levels and possible drawdowns in 18.850 and 19,200. Today is also the closing quarter in the third quarter because the closing price movements , it can support new prices.
Expectation about October : Generally, September was a positive month for the global silver market. The support level will be 18.850 and the resistance level will be 20,000 durin the first days of October.
- Date: 01 October 2016 Sat 14:20
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